Tuesday, November 09, 2004

It Depends

I think my game has become a little strange. In a good way. I never was a huge math guy, so I wing Pot Odds and things like that already. However I think I have a REALLY good intuitive feel for the game. I really think this is more important than figuring out if a certain call is +EV or –EV sometimes. For example I have mentioned before that I can sometimes tell when someone is on an AK draw. Last night I was in a large pot against someone on such a draw. Everyone else folded by the turn because she was betting out. I however KNEW my 55 WAS good against her. If I had seen an Ace or King I would have folded. What I should have done is raised her on the river. If I trusted in my reads then I would do this more often and make more money. I have not yet been able to do this. I play way too scared which I need to break myself of if I ever hope to have monster nights.

I think the ability to read an opponent is a big reason why it seems like every answer to any Poker question is: It Depends. Was my 55 call to the river a good play? Odds wise probably not. You could dissect that play many ways and most of the time I lose. Was her play poor? Not really. She did what you are supposed to do. Try and make them buy it to the river. Most people will try and make there draws until the last card, so if you check at the end, you are saying “I did not make it either”, instead of showing strength and inducing a fold.

I am starting to see how Poker is a HUGE mind game more so than a statistics class. Can you make money just playing the odds? Sure. I think you have a lot more fun playing the players though. If you are lucky enough to tune your senses into the game you can win with any two cards. This is especially true if you have shown yourself to be tight and strong for a period of time. People are afraid of the unknown, and those two hole cards are hidden away for a reason.

I actually think playing one or two tables can be more profitable than three or more because of the ability to key into the game. Usually I can put my head totally into one of my two tables and play ABC at the second one. So should you throw all of your statistical knowledge out the door and just play the game? It Depends.

7 Comments:

Blogger StudioGlyphic said...

And I suppose your intuitive feel made you raise with K7 sooted in EP only to flop trips, eh? Heh. Good playing with you last night, but I think I'll crawl back into my 1/2 hole until my bankroll can swing 3/6. Of course, it doesn't help that I withdrew half of it to protect my winnings for Vegas in TEN DAYS!!!

12:41 PM

 
Blogger ToddCommish said...

I voted for 55 being a good call. Until I voted against it.

Playing multiple tables is a good idea. Unless it isn't.

-John Kerry

(sorry, couldn't resist...)

1:28 PM

 
Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

First off: You were losing. So do not give advice. heh! Just kidding. Thanks for sitting down. It is always fun chatting with you.

Secondly: Stop trying to make me look bad! heh. Second thought I want to be on people's fish list!

Thirdly: Here is the free Poker lesson portion. If you were watching the chat, I raised K7 s00000ted for a reason. I had been playing uber tight all night and the table just respected me WAY too much, so I turned off the auto-muck, and raised K7d expecting to not get re-raised and to show my pseudo crap hand to enduce calls when I raised the next time. The new guy re-raised me, and I call. I figure I can drop it on the flop if I do not hit my flush draw, and I am already into it for 2BB. The flop as you said was a perfect 77Q or something like that. After that it became trivial to bust the guys AA. He was a good player. When I bet into him on the turn, he just called me to the river. I got really lucky. So be it. I really respected this guy for two reasons: He was a good player, and he did not whine when I essentially bad beat him.

1:31 PM

 
Blogger Predator314 said...

BAH! If he was that good of a player, he would have laid those Aces down on the river :)

1:45 PM

 
Blogger Heafy said...

About the 55 vs Ak, don't you find it funny when somebody bets Ace high big on the river, you call them with your little pair and win, and they get shitty and say "How could you call with that crap" - and all you did was call their bluff. People hate it when you call their bluff. I think every poker site should show in big font "22 > Ace high"

2:08 PM

 
Blogger StudioGlyphic said...

I've only laid down the assrapers twice in my life.

4:20 PM

 
Blogger StudioGlyphic said...

Yes, I was losing, but I happened to turn a flush that got beaten by the nut flush on the river. ;) Not that there's anything wrong with that.

I'm not trying to make you look bad--only your progress report in the sidebar can do that, and so far you're looking very good.

4:22 PM

 

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